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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd