A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
